Is the Drought Retreating? 12 of 21 Cyprus Reservoirs Exceed Last Year's Levels — and Xyliatos May Overflow
Updated Fragmata analysis: forecast improved, water deficit unlikely — except in parts of the southeast
Two weeks ago, in our first article about the Fragmata dashboard, we wrote: "the crisis is real, but cyclical — not catastrophic." The forecast model, trained on 38 years of hydrological data, predicted that reservoirs would reach their minimum by the end of 2026, followed by recovery. Since then, sustained rainfall over the Troodos mountains has accelerated that scenario. According to the Water Development Department's data for 18 March, total storage of the main reservoirs rose to 22.2% (64.7 MCM) — up from 20.6% (59.9 MCM) just sixteen days earlier. What's more: 12 of 21 reservoirs have already surpassed last year's levels on the same date.
Numbers That Change the Picture
February 2026 ended with inflow of 24.2 MCM — the best February figure in four years. March is continuing the trend: 6.7 MCM of inflow in the first 18 days alone. Total inflow for the 2025/26 water year reached 45.8 MCM — 2.5 times more than the entire 2024/25 season (18.7 MCM), and the season is far from over.
The Water Development Department itself is optimistic. In recent comments, the department noted that "inflow is in better shape than last year," and that moisture-saturated soil is contributing to more efficient runoff into reservoirs.
Xyliatos: From 64% to 80% in Two Weeks — and a Possible Overflow
The most striking story of these two weeks is the mountain reservoir Xyliatos in the Nicosia district. Its trajectory:
| Date | Fill Level | Volume (MCM) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 March | 63.9% | 0.914 |
| 6 March | 65.2% | 0.933 |
| 9 March | 66.2% | 0.946 |
| 13 March | 66.8% | 0.955 |
| 16 March | 75.3% | 1.077 |
| 18 March | 80.1% | 1.145 |
Note the jump on 16 March: in a single day, Xyliatos received 0.122 MCM — more than in the previous two weeks combined. This is the saturated-soil effect: when the ground can no longer absorb water, all rainfall flows directly into the reservoir.
Full capacity (1.43 MCM) is now just 0.285 MCM away. For comparison: last year's peak at Xyliatos was only 0.335 MCM — the current volume is 3.4 times higher. With rain forecast for this week, overflow is becoming a realistic scenario. This would be an unprecedented event for a reservoir that just a year ago was only 23% full.
Historical Reservoir Levels
Who Has Already Overtaken Last Year
Of Cyprus's 21 reservoirs, 12 now hold more water than on the same date in 2025. Some comparisons are striking:
| Reservoir | Now | Year Ago | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vyzakia | 35.1% | 2.8% | ×12.5 |
| Xyliatos | 80.1% | 23.1% | ×3.5 |
| Argaka | 100% | 37.4% | ×2.7 |
| Pomos | 100% | 42.1% | ×2.4 |
| Mavrokolympos | 65.1% | 0% (empty) | — |
| Evretou | 28.7% | 25.2% | new max |
| Kannaviou | 28.6% | 27.0% | higher |
| Agia Marina | 77.2% | 55.0% | higher |
| Kalopanagiotis | 100% | 85.1% | higher |
| Tamassos | 63.4% | 37.7% | ×1.7 |
| Klirou-Malounta | 100% | 73.5% | higher |
| Solea | 100% | 67.4% | higher |
Five reservoirs are at 100%: Pomos, Kalopanagiotis, Klirou-Malounta, and now Solea and Argaka — which reached capacity in recent days.
Kouris — the island's largest reservoir — has nearly caught up with last year's level: 20.4% versus 20.5%. Since October, 7.43 MCM of water has been pumped from Arminou to Kouris.
But Not Everywhere
The main exception is the lowland reservoirs of the Southern Conveyor in the island's southeast:
- Achna — 2.1% (0.142 MCM). Zero inflow since the start of the water year. The situation hasn't changed since the beginning of March
- Kalavasos — 8.0%, actually down from 8.3% two weeks ago
- Lefkara — 10.7%, down from 12.0%
- Germasoyeia — 13.1%
These reservoirs are located in areas where precipitation from the Troodos barely reaches. This is where water supply restrictions are likely to persist the longest. The island-wide 10% supply reduction remains in effect, but it will likely be felt most acutely in the Southern Conveyor zone.
The Forecast Has Improved
In our first article two weeks ago, Fragmata's forecast model predicted a decline to ~7% by November–December 2026 — the threshold for severe restrictions. Since then, the situation has changed substantially.
With current inflow at 45.8 MCM (and at least another month of rainy season ahead), the expected scenario is shifting towards a milder outcome. The forecast of a drop to 7% is becoming increasingly unlikely. In fact, the data is beginning to match the "recovery scenario" — the more optimistic of the three scenarios the model calculates.
This doesn't mean the crisis is entirely behind us. Summer will show how sustainable the current inflow proves to be. But 38 years of cyclical data and the dynamics of recent weeks provide grounds to say: a major water deficit in 2026 is most likely not going to happen.
Declining (3 years)
Regional Situation as of 18 March
| Region | Capacity (MCM) | Storage (MCM) | Now | Was 2 March |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Conveyor | 189.5 | 35.3 | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| Paphos | 71.7 | 18.3 | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Chrysochou | 26.1 | 9.0 | 34.3% | 30.5% |
| Nicosia | 3.5 | 2.1 | 60.3% | 50.0% |
| Total (18 main) | 290.8 | 64.7 | 22.2% | 20.6% |
The most impressive growth is in Nicosia (+10 percentage points), thanks to Xyliatos and Vyzakia. Chrysochou gained nearly 4 points. The Southern Conveyor is growing the slowest — the heavy legacy of four years of drought in lowland reservoirs.
What's Next
March isn't over yet, and more rainfall is expected this week. If the forecast holds, Xyliatos could become the first reservoir to overflow this year — a symbolic moment for an island that just two months ago was discussing drying dams.
April is the last month when rain still makes a significant contribution to inflow. From May, the dry season begins. But with the current safety cushion of 64.7 MCM and growing inflow, the outlook is substantially better than at the start of the year.
Follow the data in real time: fragmata.info
Author: Vladimir Bugay, Fragmata developer Data: Cyprus Water Development Department, report of 18 March 2026