Exceptional Troodos rainfall rewrites the season: total storage climbs to 26.9%, surpassing last year's 24.7% — and Xyliatos confirms our prediction with an overflow
In our previous article five days ago, we noted that Xyliatos was filling fast and called overflow "a realistic scenario." It happened. Cyprus's smallest major Nicosia reservoir reached 100% capacity this week — a symbolic moment for an island that opened the year debating drying dams.
But that's not the only headline. A three-day rainfall event starting around March 20 sent 12.3 mln. m³ into the island's main reservoirs in 72 hours — the largest single inflow event of the 2025/26 season. Total storage of the 18 main dams jumped from 22.7% (66.1 mln. m³) on March 20 to 26.9% (78.1 mln. m³) on March 23, surpassing last year's level of 24.7% (71.8 mln. m³) for the first time this season.
The Numbers Behind the Storm
The 25/26 water season total inflow now stands at 59.8 mln. m³ — 3.2 times more than the entire 2024/25 drought season's output of 18.7 mln. m³, with the rainy season not yet over.
March alone has already delivered 20.7 mln. m³ as of the 23rd. For context:
| Season | March inflow (mln. m³) |
|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 1.5 |
| 2023/24 | 2.9 |
| 2022/23 | 9.5 |
| 2021/22 | 19.8 |
| 2025/26 | 20.7 (still counting) |
This is already the second-highest March in the past ten years, with roughly a week of the month still remaining.
Xyliatos Overflows — As Predicted
Five days ago we wrote: "With rain forecast for this week, overflow is becoming a realistic scenario." The prediction held. Xyliatos — a 1.43 mln. m³ Nicosia-district reservoir that was only 23% full a year ago — is now at 100%.
Its trajectory over the past two weeks:
| Date | Fill | Volume (mln. m³) |
|---|---|---|
| 13 March | 66.8% | 0.955 |
| 16 March | 75.3% | 1.077 |
| 18 March | 80.1% | 1.145 |
| 20 March | 83.3% | 1.191 |
| 23 March | 100% | 1.430 |
Xyliatos is now holding 4.3 times more water than on the same date last year. Inflow of 1.41 mln. m³ since October represents nearly its entire capacity arriving in a single season.
Our Predictions, Confirmed
Fragmata's forecast model has now had three public checkpoints, each of which proved accurate:
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March 2 article: we wrote "the crisis is real, but cyclical — not catastrophic" and that the forecast model expected a recovery. At the time, reservoirs sat at 20.6%. The "recovery scenario" looked optimistic. It is now the actual trajectory.
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March 18 article: we predicted Xyliatos overflow as "a realistic scenario for this week." It happened on March 23 — exactly as projected.
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Updated season forecast: in our first article, the model's base case predicted a drop to ~7% by late 2026. That scenario is now implausible. The model's optimistic "recovery" path predicted year-end storage around 15–18%. At the current pace of accumulation, we are tracking at or above that band — and the rainy season still has weeks left.
The model doesn't predict the weather. It uses 38 years of historical inflow patterns to calculate probability distributions for how seasons typically unfold. When February delivered exceptional inflows and March continued the trend, the model's optimistic scenario became the central estimate. That turned out to be right.
Declining (3 years)
Asprokremmos Breaks Its Own Season Record
The biggest surprise of the three-day storm was Asprokremmos, Cyprus's second-largest dam. It jumped from 23.3% (12.2 mln. m³) on March 20 to 29.4% (15.42 mln. m³) on March 23 — a gain of 3.2 mln. m³ in 72 hours.
This is significant: 15.42 mln. m³ exceeds Asprokremmos's last year's seasonal peak of 15.35 mln. m³ (reached January 3, 2025). The dam now holds more water than it did at any point in the previous water year.
All the Major Movers
The three-day inflow was unevenly distributed — mountain and western catchments received the most rain:
| Reservoir | 20 March | 23 March | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arminou | 38.1% | 56.6% | +18.5pp |
| Tamassos | 67.9% | 83.4% | +15.5pp |
| Germasoyeia | 14.1% | 22.4% | +8.3pp |
| Kannaviou | 29.3% | 37.0% | +7.7pp |
| Asprokremmos | 23.3% | 29.4% | +6.1pp |
| Evretou | 29.2% | 33.9% | +4.7pp |
| Kouris | 21.2% | 24.3% | +3.1pp |
| Vyzakia | 38.1% | 44.4% | +6.3pp |
Arminou's surge deserves special attention: 2.46 mln. m³ entered the dam in just three days — more than total seasonal inflow for all of 2024/25 for some smaller reservoirs. The ongoing transfer to Kouris has now reached 9.63 mln. m³ since October.
Still Lagging: The Eastern Lowlands
Not all dams benefited. The southeastern reservoirs of the Southern Conveyor remain stubbornly low:
- Achna — 2.1% (0.14 mln. m³). Zero inflow all season. Unchanged since early March
- Kalavasos — 8.4%, below last year's 27.6%
- Lefkara — 12.3%, below last year's 29.0%
These lowland dams lie outside the main Troodos catchment. Even an exceptional event like this week's barely reaches them. The island-wide 10% water supply cut remains in effect, and officials stressed in media appearances this week that water conservation remains critical through 2027–28.
Regional Picture: 23 March
| Region | Capacity (mln. m³) | Storage (mln. m³) | 23 March | 13 March |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Conveyor | 189.5 | 42.1 | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| Paphos | 71.7 | 23.2 | 32.4% | 24.4% |
| Chrysochou | 26.1 | 10.2 | 39.1% | 31.5% |
| Nicosia | 3.5 | 2.5 | 73.0% | 52.2% |
| Total (18 main) | 290.8 | 78.1 | 26.9% | 21.2% |
Data Table
| 12m Trend | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.800 | 0.149 2.2% | 0.865 12.7% | 10.5% | 0.000 | — | 0.000 | 7/2026 | ||
| 0.298 | 0.298 100.0% | 0.176 59.1% | 40.9% | 0.001 | — | 0.249 | Not Expected | ||
| 0.990 | 0.990 100.0% | 0.373 37.7% | 62.3% | 0.001 | — | 1.003 | Not Expected | ||
| 4.300 | 2.972 69.1% | 2.729 63.5% | 5.6% | 0.149 | — | 19.040 | Not Expected | ||
| 52.375 | 21.300 40.7% | 12.106 23.1% | 17.6% | 0.070 | — | 19.029 | Not Expected | ||
| 15.500 | 5.909 38.1% | 5.852 37.8% | 0.3% | 0.010 | — | 3.415 | Not Expected | ||
| 24.000 | 11.602 48.3% | 5.622 23.4% | 24.9% | 0.065 | — | 9.548 | Not Expected | ||
| 13.500 | 7.749 57.4% | 3.218 23.8% | 33.6% | 0.037 | — | 8.177 | Not Expected | ||
| 17.100 | 3.883 22.7% | 4.370 25.6% | 2.9% | 0.008 | — | 3.673 | 4/2034 | ||
| 0.363 | 0.363 100.0% | 0.297 81.8% | 18.2% | 0.000 | — | 0.311 | Not Expected | ||
| 17.168 | 8.762 51.0% | 4.174 24.3% | 26.7% | 0.045 | — | 8.897 | Not Expected | ||
| 2.000 | 2.000 100.0% | 1.450 72.5% | 27.5% | 0.001 | — | 1.081 | Not Expected | ||
| 115.000 | 43.966 38.2% | 21.591 18.8% | 19.4% | 0.209 | — | 21.960 | Not Expected | ||
| 13.850 | 2.525 18.2% | 2.908 21.0% | 2.8% | 0.002 | — | 1.618 | 12/2032 | ||
| 2.180 | 1.963 90.0% | 0.000 0.0% | 90.0% | 0.002 | — | 0.944 | Not Expected | ||
| 3.400 | 2.106 61.9% | 1.267 37.3% | 24.6% | 0.013 | — | 1.491 | Not Expected | ||
| 0.860 | 0.860 100.0% | 0.371 43.1% | 56.9% | 0.001 | — | 0.788 | Not Expected | ||
| 4.454 | 4.454 100.0% | 2.840 63.8% | 36.2% | 0.000 | — | 2.636 | Not Expected | ||
| 2.800 | 2.800 100.0% | 0.985 35.2% | 64.8% | 0.001 | — | 2.602 | Not Expected | ||
| 1.690 | 1.690 100.0% | 0.043 2.5% | 97.5% | 0.001 | — | 1.690 | Not Expected | ||
| 1.430 | 1.430 100.0% | 0.302 21.1% | 78.9% | 0.001 | — | 1.421 | Not Expected |
What This Means Going Forward
Three weeks ago the 25/26 season looked like a modest recovery. Now it's shaping up as one of the better seasons of the decade — not 2018/19 levels, but firmly above average.
With April still ahead — historically the last meaningful month for inflow — and the rainy season's momentum intact, the forecast for year-end reserves has improved substantially. The scenario we outlined in our first article (a drop to critical levels by late 2026) is no longer realistic.
The remaining question is the southeast. Achna, Kalavasos, and Lefkara depend on different weather patterns than the Troodos dams. Until they recover, water management in the Larnaca and Famagusta districts will remain difficult.
Follow the live data: fragmata.info
Author: Vladimir Bugay, Fragmata developer Data: Cyprus Water Development Department, report of 23 March 2026